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Abstract PremiseCompetition from naturalized species and habitat loss are common threats to native biodiversity and may act synergistically to increase competition for decreasing habitat availability. We use Hawaiian dryland ferns as a model for the interactions between land‐use change and competition from naturalized species in determining habitat availability. MethodsWe used fine‐resolution climatic variables and carefully curated occurrence data from herbaria and community science repositories to estimate the distributions of Hawaiian dryland ferns. We quantified the degree to which naturalized ferns tend to occupy areas suitable for native species and mapped the remaining available habitat given land‐use change. ResultsOf all native species,Doryopteris angelicahad the lowest percentage of occurrences of naturalized species in its suitable area whileD. decorahad the highest. However, allDoryopterisspp. had a higher percentage overlap, whilePellaea ternifoliahad a lower percentage overlap, than expected by chance.Doryopteris decoraandD. decipienshad the lowest proportions (<20%) of suitable area covering native habitat. DiscussionAreas characterized by shared environmental preferences of native and naturalized ferns may decrease due to human development and fallowed agricultural lands. Our study demonstrates the value of place‐based application of a recently developed correlative ecological niche modeling approach for conservation risk assessment in a rapidly changing and urbanized island ecosystem.